Women Empowerment

Why the concerns of nearly fifty percent of the population have been falling on deaf years continuously?

The situation of women isn’t bad in one or two countries but is a worldwide phenomenon. From rapes and molestations issues in country like India to the fight for abortion rights and control over one’s own body in USA, the world seems to have no differentiation when the issue at being addressed is about gender sensitization and respect for women’s rights. Perhaps, that’s the reason why World Economic Forum stated that while it will take 100+ years to close the gender gap , it will take 200+ years to bring parity in workforce. One of the videos by P&G titled Always Like a Girl stands as the perfect example of how girls at a young age see themselves positively and are ambitious while the women in the later ages often do underestimate their capabilities and potential because of the constant tough societal circumstances they are subjected to.

While the Indian government was quick to dismiss the report compiled by Thomson Reuters recently which stated our country as being the most unsafe for women in the world, the situation of women in India needs to be understood in many contexts in order to get a real fact check regarding their standard of living and the opportunities available to them.

According to latest ASER report, 13.5% of the girls in age category of 15-16 are not enrolled in school. Even those girl students who are enrolled in school often have to face difficult times when they reach higher classes owing to lack of safe transportation, which results in them dropping out due to safety concerns of their parents. Girls being interested in engineering is proven by the fact that out of total 15 lakh students graduating as engineers from over 3000 institutes in India, around 30% of them are girls but the figure falls drastically when its about them being in India’s most prestigious colleges like IITs. This year the percentage of girls out of total number of students who qualified for admission into IITs stood at just 13.8%. The condition is somewhat similar across the STEM fields.

This leads us to measure the condition of women when they join the workforce after completing their education. The participation of women in workforce in India has fallen sharply from 32% in 2015 to 25% in 2018, with again the non-availability of safe public transport facilities emerging as one if the biggest issues. While our government’s own data from MoSPI does accepts that women do make up 42% of the new graduates who join the formal workforce, the number continues to depreciate to just 10% women present in the senior level management roles which further dwindles to only 1% reaching the CEO role finally.

The biggest culprit behind this constant degradation of the women in our society is the unknown bias with which the male population acts constantly. In a recent study, it was found that women candidates have 30% less chances of being called for a job interview despite having same CV quality as that of male candidates while applying for the same job. Additionally, the unconscious bias of men in terms of seeing women lacking the capability to take tough business decisions and being more driven by emotions hugely disincentivises their chances of being recruited on stereotypical grounds.  Even in the personal lives with friends and family, a woman is subjected to uncomfortable situations when the male members use cuss words which have an underlying derogatory tone targeting the female gender, or referring to the weaker male as being girlish. These unacknowledged biases have a deep unconscious effect on an individuals’ future behaviour as well as shape up what the children do learn from their observations thus compounding the bad situation.

There is a need to enable more women to rise to leadership roles because that would bring innovative solutions through empathetic behaviour and understanding for solving the problems faced by women employees. An excellent example is of Mrs Arundhati Bhattacharya who during her stint in the HR domain at SBI revamped the prevailing sabbatical leave structure after identifying the three most crucial stages at which women are forced to leave a job. Those three stages were when a woman used to have childbirth, when her kids would be preparing for entrance examinations and when her in-laws or parents would get sick for prolonged period of time - all standing as excellent examples of our patriarchal society. The biggest failure of empowering woman has been caused by the political leaders of India who over the years have been only giving lip service to this cause while doing nothing to bring ground change. Only 14% of current parliamentarians are women which is a huge misrepresentation when compared to their population. The fate of Women Reservation Bill in Parliament hasn’t still seen the light of the day. An even bigger challenge today is the future of women in work with increasing automation and adoption of Artificial Intelligence. Today only 22% of AI professionals are women and this number faces further threat with the organizations looking to trim down the costs of operations.

Thus, what we need today is to bring in all the stakeholders from a diverse set of fields to work towards the common goal of enabling women and girls to succeed and making available the opportunities they have deserved since ever, but we as a society have failed in safeguarding that for them. This cant be possible without sensitising the men first regarding their responsibilities and making the children of today more aware regarding these things in order to fasten the progress we can make in empowering the new women leaders of tomorrow.

Ankit Thakur

H19127

Little Women, Large economies

When even in 2019, an amplitude of feminist movements are being termed as farcical exercises of privilege, it becomes essential to explore the impact feminism creates on global economy and prove to the insular populace that women rights actually matter. While it is imperative to define feminism in order to perform this exercise, the variety of narratives and approaches to the idea puts forth a dilemma. Sacrificing the pluralistic nature of the ideology and simply stating “Feminism is empowering women” sounds ideal, the depth and variety of the topic is only justified when we talk about how feminism has evolved over the years. The first wave of feminism, which ranged from the 19^th to earlier 20^th century mainly focused on Women’s political rights in Europe and USA. While the first wave of feminism was predominantly led by white women, it was during the Second wave where racism against women of colour was finally shed and their contributions were recognized and feminism bloomed as an ideology. However, the failure of second wave of feminism to create any tangible impact birthed the third wave of feminism. It was now that the definition of empowerment went beyond the boundaries of qualitative ideologies and had more quantifiable factors, such as enrolment in schools, women employment rates amongst others. The third wave of feminism coupled with the internet boom enabled the message of intersectionality, transfeminism and post-modern feminism to evolve and change social dynamics way more rapidly than ever before.

Empowering a woman implies providing the woman not only a choice of being capable but providing her the right means and tools to exercise her choice in a sustainable manner. Historically, most policies that intended to empower women were mostly focused on their well being. While there is absolutely no denial about the nobility of the intention that went behind these programs or the colossal impact they had in reducing the suffrages of these women, very few of them actually focused on increasing a woman’s financial independence. However, there is substantial evidence that attempts of making women capable through welfare route has not always translated into an economic benefit for the society. This is proved by Ester Boserup’s empirical research on how modern agriculture was introduced to men and not women in several parts of the world, thereby creating a pay parity. The steady but noticeable reduction in pay for primary and secondary teachers as women began to take over the positions generally filled up by men also proves how most governing bodies have always considered a woman’s income as supplementary and not necessary. This is further confirmed by the standing wage gap at 23% along with the penalties a woman has to pay during and after pregnancy. This is without considering the unpaid domestic work every woman provides to her family.  However, in there is one notable instance where women were economically empowered to drive change. In case of Grameen Bank, set up  in 1983, was an initiative which stemmed in Bangladesh wherein the concept of microcredit was used not just to singularly empower women, but to empower the country in general. With over 95% of its loan takers being women, Grameen Bank within 10 years of it’s foundation had mobilized USD 306 million and disbursed approximately USD 1 billion . Grameen Bank’s success story has inspired many countries to replicate its model in some way or other.

The advantages of having women in all domains of work is further proved by “Women Parliamentarians Impact on Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis Evidence” wherein Eman Khorsheed mathematically explores the effect under-representation of women in political bodies has on national economies. The author uses three economic indicators: (i) GDP/capita, (ii) FDI inflow and (iii) population growth for 20 countries for a period of 12 years; from 2006 to 2012. His findings support what countless feminists have been lobbying for ages, that women inclusion has a positive impact on the economy. A recent IMF report on the economic benefits from including women in the work force further goes on to prove that the direct cost of gender parity can be upto 20% of welfare and growth costs in India, several countries in North America and the middle-East as well. The paper goes on to prove that women have a crucial role to play in not only bringing diversity but also in sector re-allocation. The estimates shown in the report also prove how men and women complement each other in production. It also proves that depending on the initial value of Female participation in Labour force, closing the gender gap will actually have an increase from 10-80% in GDP.

IMF estimates further show how in countries like Ireland, Brazil where Female Labour Force Participation has rapidly increased has had a positive effect on the Total productivity factor as well as the the GDP, when compared to countries like Morocco and Egypt where Female Labour force participation has stagnated. Even with this high cost of gender parity, 104 out of 189 economies have laws preventing women to work in specific jobs. Adding to this there are 59 economies have no laws on sexual harassment in the workplace, and 18 economies, where husbands can legally prevent their wives from working.

Women have always had an important function in economies, whether it be as the head of household regulating the outflow of income or as an individual earning member. The aim of feminist movements, while not restricted to, but largely focused on aiding a “modern” woman’s journey to financial independence has huge impacts on economies simply because they enable women to work. These movements play a crucial role in ensuring this independence and thereby reducing the damage that gender parity will bring to economies. But, even with this knowledge in public domain, in 2019, an amplitude of feminist movements are being termed as farcical exercises of privilege.

References:

https://www.unwomen.org/en/what-we-do/economic-empowerment/facts-and-figures

https://beijing20.unwomen.org/en/in-focus/economy

https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/01/23/replicating-grameen-bank-miracle-in-developing-economies/

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/12/economic-gains-from-gender-inclusion-even-greater-than-you-thought/

Anushree Ghosh

B19126@astra.xlri.ac.in

The quest for defense indigenisation

The Dr A.P.J Abdul Kalam committee was set up in 1995 to suggest reforms in India’s defense technology environment, among various other objectives. The committee had set a target for 70% indigenisation by 2005¹. The year is now 2019 and that target is still far away.

Last week saw the 9th group meeting of the India-US defense trade and technology initiative. It is being considered as one of the landmark initiatives in India’s demand for greater access to dual use technologies and joint development of critical systems which could help in India’s quest for defense indigenisation, which has been a long-drawn pursuit ever since the tragedy of 1962 war with China.

The defense industrial base, which is at the core of defense indigenisation, is a peculiar case in itself. In the last seven decades India has established more than 50 defense laboratories, roughly 40 ordnance factories and 10 defense public sector undertakings and despite that India has not produced a single assault rifle that can meet the global standards. What is interesting is that a nation that can send orbiter to Mars and Moon, develop missile systems which can rival the best in the world and be one of the few to have an anti-ballistic missile system, is having difficulties in developing a pistol which can rival Glock.

Many governments in the past have made attempts to increase the proportion of indigenous products in our weapon systems to 70%, but for many years this has stayed at roughly 30%, pushing India to the position of 2nd largest defense importer after Saudi Arabia². The government has taken initiatives like Make in India for defence, creation of defense industrial corridors, offset policies etc but it may take many years before they bear fruits, if any.

The problems which plague the system are many, but it would be interesting to discuss about the issues which manage to stay beyond the public gaze. One of the few such things is an innocent document known as the National Security Strategy (NSS). It is perplexing that a country with the 3rd largest armed forces in the world and facing a range of external security challenges emanating from across the borders, could never move ahead of the draft stage when it came to NSS. The absence of NSS at central level translates into lack of coherence in execution level, whether in dealing with China on boundary issue, Pakistan on terrorism, or smuggling at Nepal and Bangladesh border. This gives the general impression that our security handling is nothing but ad hoc and tactics driven, bereft of any strategy.

In the US, NSS is a document which broadly talks about the security challenges the US faces and broadly outlines the way Uncle Sam plans to deal with those. The key role it plays is that it initiates a debate about the broad strategic positioning and provides guidance to the stakeholders, as well as holding the government accountable. In India, before the elections, the Congress party had entrusted Lt Gen (Retd) Hooda to come up with a draft NSS. This document had defined national security in a very broad and inclusive terms with the guiding philosophy: “This strategy recognises the centrality of our people. We cannot achieve true security if large sections of our population are faced with discrimination, inequality, lack of opportunities, and buffeted by the risks of climate change, technology disruption, and water and energy scarcity.” ³

This has been one of the most elaborate descriptions of national security in Indian context coming close to the Chinese idea of comprehensive national power. It has been reported that the recently formed defense planning committee headed by the NSA has been tasked with the formulation of NSS, but what remains to be seen is whether the government would bite the bullet and accept the draft that the committee comes out with. In the absence of NSS there is absolutely no clarity regarding what is the core at which our entire defense and strategic system should converge. As of now the road to be taken remains nebulous, for both government as well as private players.

Lt Gen (Retd) Hooda’s NSS has also talked about bringing in cultural change in DRDO, which is something which is needed by all the players, and not only DRDO. The major institutional players in the segment have not seen any deep structural reforms that would enable them to deliver products to meet the security scenario of the 21st century. The system, in which the consumers as well as the majority of domestic suppliers are both units of government, has seen a very poor level of coordination at both the inter as well as intra level. The suppliers, being government entity, have reached a state of organisational callousness primarily as they know they will survive even if their products are not sought any more by the armed forces. This attitude has led to a situation where crucial products are perennially in the stage of development (prime example being the Arjun Main Battle Tank)⁴. The same can be said about the organisational state of the ordnance factories, which have failed to deliver on time, even when the technology was readily available, for reasons like inability to timely expand the production capacities. On the consumer side, reports have blamed the armed forces for repeatedly changing the design parameters, leading to delays.

Another fundamental issue, that plagues the system but rarely discussed, is an absence of trust on the military as well the private sector. From the very beginning the political class was vary of military coups which were a common thing in the 3rd world countries. To prevent this an elaborate structure was weaved in which the responsibility for India’s defense was entrusted with the Defense Secretary, who is a career bureaucrat and a generalist, and not with the military. Even symbolically the military was given a lower position compared to civilian counterparts, as can be seen from the Order of Precedence as well as the status provided to the offices of the three service chiefs. Moreover, the recommendation of many committees to create the post of Chief of Defense Staff had fallen on deaf ears primarily because of the fear that it would become an all too powerful institution. This absence of trust on military and reliance on civilian bureaucracy has created a situation where the IAS and IPS, despite being generalists, wield disproportionate influence over India’s security issues, with the forces remaining as onlookers and not key drivers of critical processes.

In case of private sector, this attitude then was a result of a general leaning towards socialism and not something specific to defence. Post 90s, while the distrust of private sector from other streams of economy vanished, an element of reluctance still lingers when it comes to defense. Overzealous scrutiny of defense deals for political purposes has made the scenario worse.

The ability to rely on self when it comes to defense is not something superficial, it would need an overhaul of our strategic and defense thought as well as architecture. A start can be made with the restructuring of DRDO along the lines of US DARPA and kicking OFBs out of their bureaucratic quagmire. An element of enterprise needs to be brought in with focus on diversification and exports, as has been demonstrated by DPSUs like BEL. Lessons can also be learnt from countries like France and Israel, who plough a significant portion of their revenues from exports back into research and development, thus creating a self-sustaining cycle. There are many good ideas which have been given by scholars and bodies like IDSA which need to be looked into, but most importantly discussions about important issues like defense need to be extricated from being reduced into binaries of India vs Pakistan or India vs China.

Sun Tzu once commented that the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting. This subjugation can never be achieved with now and then shopping of weapons and technologies at international markets, at the cost of a robust domestic defense-industrial complex.

                                                                                                                                  Written by:

                                                                                                                      Anshuman Mishra

                                                                                          (anshuman.mishra@astra.xlri.ac.in)

References:

1.India Today. Manohar Parrikar to India Today (2016) Available at: https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/interview/story/20170306-manohar-parrikar-indigenisation-defence-ministry-public-private-sector-drdo-985868-2017-02-27

2.Ghosh, Ranjit. Indigenisation: Key to self-sufficiency and strategic ability

3.Jacob, Happymon. A blueprint for a national security strategy/ The Hindu (23.05.2019)

4.Ghosh, Ranjit. Indigenisation: Key to self-sufficiency and strategic ability

The 2019 Data Protection Bill – An Intractable Balance

The Data Protection Bill, which was drafted in July 2018 by a 10-member team led by retd. Justice BN Srikrishna, will probably be tabled in the Winter session of Parliament. It proposes the creation of a Data Protection Authority in India to prevent personal information misuse and imposes frameworks for data localization [1]. Union Communications, Electronics and Information Technology Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad on Monday said the Data Protection Bill is ready and would be placed in Parliament soon. He said that the bill would offer a pragmatic view of all aspects of the Internet, like accessibility, availability, privacy, neutrality, commerce and local data warehousing. The bill also sets guidelines in place on “critical” or “sensitive data”, and mandates that such data is stored strictly within Indian data warehouses.

If data is the new oil, then this might sound like just the framework that we need to regulate the supply lines. However, the statements made thus far about this bill may have a certain degree of specificity towards its expectations from data handling that may not resonate perfectly with all the stakeholders involved. For instance, Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad also said that while the government is for free and fair accessibility of Internet through various gates and against any restriction, it cannot allow terrorists to make use of the privacy plea while regretting that some apps, like WhatsApp, are not doing enough to check the misuse of the medium by radicalists. He said the government should be able to know the origin of fake news and other misuse and it would bring in regulations to check abuse of the medium by these apps.

A similar concern was tabled by BJP leader Ashwini Kumar Upadhyay, who sought to link social media accounts of Indian citizens with their Aadhar, so as to add accountability to the content posted by users and curb fake news. However, this petition was not entertained by the Supreme Court, asking Upadhyay to move to the Madras High Court with this issue [2]. As per a Supreme court ruling, Aadhar is meant for availing government benefits, not for private usage.[3] While social media giants like Facebook and Twitter are being cajoled to take sterner measures towards regulating content that may instigate social unrest, this request is at odds with the very privacy that this bill seeks to enforce, which was declared as a fundamental right in 2017. Social media firms and legal bodies have their work cut out for them, carving out a robust middle ground between privacy and traceability. These cases are in strong resonance with the 2016 Apple encryption case, wherein Apple refused to provide a backdoor into their devices to the FBI. The outcome of the case suggests that any changes in the content regulation strategy on social media, be it instigated by the government, the courts, or the social media giants themselves, has to take the core values of the firm in question.

Similar bills have already been introduced in other countries over 2019, including Sri Lanka and Ecuador, both of whom take notes from the European General Data Protection Regulation GDPR draft. However, the Sri Lankan bill focuses more on data privacy protection and effective cross-border co-operation.[4] On the other hand, the Ecuador equivalent was designed in a rushed manner, in response to a massive data breach which left the personally identifiable information (PII) of over 20 million people on an unprotected server. Thus, the focus of the Ecuador data protection bill was towards data processing practices, data subject rights and data provisions to external entities.[5] The GDPR of the European Union is serves as a comprehensive data protection guideline. While much still remains speculative about the Indian Data Protection bill, there are certain unique features in the GDPR that can add value to it, as given below [6]:

·        Clear, straight-forward privacy policies

·        Silence is no consent. Clear user consent needed by a business to use their data.

·        Transfer of personal data, if any, needs to be clearly notified to the user

·        The occurrence of a harmful data breach should be notified to the user

·        User’s right to access their data that the business has

Based on the considerations made by other nations, it seems that the Indian data protection bill aims to resolve a rather unique conundrum, that is not only limited to protection of data, but also purposefully expands to responsible utilization of online data. Given what was mentioned by Mr. Ravi Shankar Prasad about data misuse, no data protection bill in any other geography thus far has tabled data monitoring in its charter. Either we’ve seen this problem at an early stage, or at a massive scale, given the population of the country. Therefore, India needs to achieve a future-proof balance between data protection and supervision with this bill. While this may seem like an intractable challenge, if solved, it would set the Indian Data Protection Bill as an iron-clad benchmark for future legislations focused on protecting the citizen in the digital ecosystem.

Written by:

Saransh Kejriwal

(b19043@astra.xlri.ac.in)

References

[1] NDTV Gadgets 360. (2019). New Data Protection Bill to Be Placed in Parliament Soon: Prasad. [online] Available at: https://gadgets.ndtv.com/internet/news/new-data-protection-bill-to-be-placed-in-parliament-soon-prasad-2116982 [Accessed 19 Oct. 2019].

[2] Times Of India. (2019). SC junks plea seeking to link Aadhaar with social media accounts | India News - Times of India. [online] The Times of India. Available at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/sc-junks-plea-seeking-to-link-aadhaar-with-social-media-accounts/articleshow/71589042.cms [Accessed 19 Oct. 2019].

[3] DASGUPTA, D. (2019). India debates linking social media accounts to government IDs. [online] The Straits Times. Available at: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/india-debates-linking-social-media-accounts-to-government-ids [Accessed 19 Oct. 2019].

[4] Babele, A. (2019). Summary: Sri Lanka Personal Data Protection Bill - MediaNama. [online] MediaNama. Available at: https://www.medianama.com/2019/07/223-summary-sri-lanka-personal-data-protection-bill/ [Accessed 19 Oct. 2019].

[5]Financial Times(2019). Ecuador fast-tracks data privacy law after massive breach | Financial Times. [online] Available at: https://www.ft.com/content/35f9aea0-dbb0-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17 [Accessed 19 Oct. 2019].

[6] European Commission - European Commission. (2019). EU data protection rules. [online] Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/justice-and-fundamental-rights/data-protection/2018-reform-eu-data-protection-rules/eu-data-protection-rules_en [Accessed 19 Oct. 2019].

ABROGATION OF ARTICLE 370 AND 35A: TRANSBORDER SECURITY PERSPECTIVE & WAY FORWARD

On 5^th August 2019, government took a historic decision of abrogating article 370 and 35A that provided special status for Jammu & Kashmir. Further a reorganisation bill was introduced in parliament that divided the state into 2 union territories comprising of Ladakh which like Lakshadweep will not have a legislature and Jammu & Kashmir which will be a union territory having its own legislature on the lines of the national capital Delhi.

The announcement was met with jubilation in some sections and tribulation in others. Many in the opposition were not convinced regarding the manner in which the entire exercise was carried out in utmost secrecy and at the time in which president’s rule was imposed on the state.

India has regarded Kashmir as a bilateral issue between itself and Pakistan. The latter despite being signatory to Shimla agreement 1972 and Lahore declaration 1999 that stresses on Kashmir being a bilateral issue has always tried to draw international attention to the issue much to the displeasure of India. The offer of American president to play mediator in Kashmir was music to the Pakistani ears. Imran khan on his return from US compared the visit to his nation’s world cup victory in 1992.

Back in India this must have expedited the government’s decision to act in the manner it did. In the event of successful deal between USA and Taliban, Pakistan in line with its policy of promoting terror will certainly divert its attention towards India and destabilise Jammu & Kashmir like it had done in the past. Indian government promptly called off the ongoing Amarnath yatra in the state, suspended mobile and internet connectivity, put opposition leaders(which included 2 former chief ministers) in Kashmir under house arrest, additional forces were mobilised and the whole state was put under curfew.

State of Jammu and Kashmir comprises of 3 areas of Ladakh, Jammu and Kashmir. Prior to the announcement the state of Jammu & Kashmir had its own constitution and no law passed in parliament applied to it without the concurrence of the state assembly. Perhaps, national security concerns figured prominently as one of the main driving factors in its decision to abrogate and reorganise the state into 2 union territories

Learning lessons from history

In 1989 the erstwhile Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan, in the aftermath of soviet withdrawal, Pakistani intelligence flush with weapons, money and manpower from USA diverted a significant amount of resources towards the state in line with its “bleed India through a thousand cuts policy”. The first victims of this policy were the Kashmiri pandits who were driven out of their homes and thousands were murdered in cold blood.

The valley was turned into a terror sanctuary with spawning of several terror groups. This created major disturbances in the valley and had disastrous consequences on its security and economy. It was with significant efforts and tremendous sacrifices of the Indian soldiers that a semblance of normalcy was restored in the state after years of disturbances.

The year 2019 yet again brought a sense of Déjà vu because of happenings in neighbouring Afghanistan. Serving American president Donald Trump in a bid to extricate himself out of the afghan quagmire that has costed Americans billions of dollars with no significant results, opened negotiations for peace with the Taliban, (even though the negotiations have now been suspended in the aftermath of Kabul bombing). American president realising the importance of Pakistan in concluding the deal made a statement stating that India had approached the USA for mediation, this was followed up by an offer to mediate which must have set the alarm bells ringing in the corridors of power.

Exactly 30 years ago what was responsible for the huge exodus of Kashmiri pandits? Was it the failure of state government or the union government? Who had the primary responsibility to protect civilians from danger? Why was the army not mobilised when it was clear that the state government was either unable to or did not have the intention to act with alacrity? These are some hard questions that need to be asked as the failure in checking mob violence and indecisive attitude of then state government is quite well known.

Two decisions stand out apart from the abrogation of article 370 and 35A. Firstly the state has been converted into a union territory which means the police forces in the state will be under the control of the union home ministry. It clearly indicates that union government no longer has faith in the ability of the state government to deliver on security issues. Secondly the union government is determined not to lose the hard-earned gains post 1989 turmoil. A plethora of forces acting in sync with intelligence agencies under the supervision of union government is the best bet for ensuring continued security on the ground.

Trinity of Unemployment, drug abuse and radicalisation fuels militancy

Unemployment: According to 2011 census the population of Jammu & Kashmir is 1.25 crores out of which 70% of the population in below the age of 35. The proposed union territory also has the highest average unemployment at 24.6% in the age group of 18-29 against the national average of 13.2%. Slowdown in the Indian economy has also hit the erstwhile state hard and the current situation at least for the short term will only exacerbate problems. When 1.5 lakh highly qualified youth boasting of qualifications as high as graduation and post-graduation register themselves as unemployed in 15 days in an area that roughly comprises 1% of the country’s population, the situation becomes alarming to say the least.  Unemployment is a ticking time bomb any regime can ignore only at its own peril.

DRUGS & DISTRESS: Jammu & Kashmir despite being in the transit route to golden crescent remained devoid of the problem for a long time. However, in the previous two decades it has witnessed a steep rise in substance abuse. The issue has reached epidemic proportions and increasing usage of substances among females and decreasing age at first use and increasing drug related deaths has been an alarming development in a state plagued by terrorism. According to a study by United Nations International Drug Control Program survey, there were more than 70,000 drug addicts in Kashmir which includes 4000 female addicts. Around 70 percent of the addicts falls in the age-group of 18-35. Among the addicted population. Most of the people surveyed cite conflict and unemployment as the major causes for taking to drugs. An entire generation has grown up during the times of conflict and a survey by Médecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) reported 1.8 million adults in Kashmir showing symptoms of significant mental distress. In addition, such symptoms to a varying degree was reported by as much as 45% of the population in the valley.

Unemployment, drug addiction and mental distress lets the youth of the population fall prey easily to terror groups who radicalise  and leverage them increasingly in an enhanced effort to destabilise the security situation in the valley and the country, attack on Pulwama was nothing but an outcome of this approach where suicide attack was carried out by a radicalised youth. There has been a remarkable increase in youth taking up arms, 131 youth took to arms in the state in the year 2017 and the number increased to over 200 in 2018. All these factors paint a very grim picture of the situation in the valley.

Jammu & Kashmir received an amount of 1.14 lakh crores over a period from 2000-2016 which comprised of 10% of total central grants given to states during this period. Taking into account its population according to 2011 census, the per capita central grant amounted to a sum of 91300 per person. Poor governance combined with massive corruption in the previous state governments have created an explosive situation. If steps are not taken to defuse the situation, it could set the whole area alight with grave consequences of unimaginable proportions.

Creating a counter-narrative

While the previous governments took the route of appeasement in the form of appointing interlocutors to talk to various factions and combined talks with generous doles from the central exchequer. The present government has taken a hard-line stance of not indulging in talks. In the midst of heated debates regarding appropriateness of stands taken by current and previous governments, the biggest failure of the state is something that has been conveniently hidden from the general population.

While Pakistan has increasingly used cyber space, social media and other subversive techniques to create a narrative around army deployments and atrocities on the population in Kashmir and used it to brainwash and radicalise the youth, inducing them to take up arms. Indian state has only been in a reactionary mode. There is a clear absence of a counter-narrative emanating out of Indian state. While India has recently been successful in exposing false narrative of Pakistan on many international forums, such successes would be meaningless if the opportunities are not used to build a counter narrative to counter the forces of terror and radicalisation. It is high time that the establishment realises that the war cannot be won without creating a counter narrative to the enemy’s propaganda in a state that has 70% of the population below 35 who in the conditions that prevail might find it easier to resort to taking up arms against the state.

An effective counter narrative will not only lead to integration of heart and minds of the people with the Indian state, it will also lead to savings of many civilian and non- civilian lives and billions of rupees for the exchequer. The potential of a narrative in ensuring and improving the security of the state has for decades been the most ignored aspect of our security policy.

Solutions to the problem 

The factors mentioned above clearly highlights the grim situation in the region. Successes of the military operations has given the state some breathing space in which to initiate a counter narrative and correct the wrongs of previous decades. With Jammu & Kashmir being declared as a union territory. The state stands on the cusp of a historic moment that will determine its future course. The biggest service to Jammu & Kashmir would be elimination of rampant corruption in the state as the first state.

The people of Jammu & Kashmir have paid a huge price in the ongoing conflict, they have lived for almost 3 decades in an atmosphere of fear and insecurity. Children have grown up in an atmosphere of tension, military checkpoints and curfews. While the rest of the country prospered, fruits of economic developments have not reached the people of the state in the same measure as it has to the rest of the country. It is a right of every child on the planet to live in an atmosphere of security and without fear. Work hard for securing his future and endeavour to reach the skies in his quest for excellence. A former prime minister once quoted that “no one can stop an idea whose time has come” and now perhaps it is the right time to integrate the people of Jammu & Kashmir fully with the economic powerhouse that is India and enable its youth to harness his/her capabilities to the fullest to enjoy the fruits of prosperity and security.

A collaboration of some of the best minds in the country in the fields of governance and administration and NGO’s operating in the relevant fields should be encouraged to give Jammu and Kashmir a robust model of governance that is agile and responsive to the needs and aspirations of the state would be the biggest service the present government could do the newly formed union territory. It is also worth noting that around 106 central laws like prevention of corruption act, laws on whistle-blowers protection which was not applicable earlier would now apply to the union territory.

In the short-term investments has to come from the government. The fact that Jammu and Kashmir is now a union territory will help it with increased access to funds and greater union control to ensure appropriate utilisation of the above mentioned funds. In the face of uncertainty regarding the security situation prevailing in the state, private investments would be hard to come by. However, it is imperative to act with urgency with regard to improving security and redefining the policies of the state to make it more business friendly.

Corporates and NGO’s should be encouraged to set up de-addiction centres, mental health and wellness centres in the union territory to tackle the growing problems of mental distress and drug-addiction. A tweak allowing corporates to collaborate with governments and NGO’s to fund such centres as part of CSR activity could help in this regard. Such collaborations can go a long way in creating a counter narrative and extending a soft arm of the state for the welfare of the people.

Parallelly the coercive arm of the state specially the police forces could be infused with experts specialising in fields like anti-narcotics operations, intelligence gathering, counselling with a view to deradicalize the youth. A merciless clampdown on cross border funded drug operations combined with efforts at deradicalization combined with efficient use of social media could deprive the agents of terror with considerable financial and human muscle to carry out their subversive activities.

It will provide the Indian state with the much-needed breathing space to efficiently implement its agenda. The coming months are crucial, proper handling of security situation and implementing of a visionary economic plan might herald a new era of peace and prosperity. Any failure on part of the government might result in the youth proving to be a double-edged sword. An opportunity missed at this crucial juncture might push the newly formed union territory again into an endless cycle of killing and destruction and such an opportunity might not present itself for a considerable period of time gain.

--------------------------------

Written by 

Ujjwal Sinha

Email- h19178@astra.xlri.ac.in

CPPR, XLRI

REFERENCES:

• ·       https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/trump-kashmir-row-simla-agreement-lahore-declaration-india-pakistan-1572622-2019-07-23
• ·       https://www.rediff.com/news/column/is-it-time-to-divide-jk-into-three-/20160910.htm
• ·       http://drugabuse.imedpub.com/drug-addiction-in-kashmir-issues-and-challenges.php?aid=20596
• ·       https://www.deccanherald.com/national/north-and-central/jk-15-lakh-postgraduates-and-above-jobless-750661.html
• ·       https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/health/almost-half-of-the-population-of-kashmir-valley-mentally-ill-claims-survey-54011
• ·       https://www.hindustantimes.com/analysis/how-to-counter-radicalisation-in-jammu-kashmir/story-azWDdkR3o5zQa94wSWl2aL.html
• ·       https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/central-laws-apply-jk-now-1578193-2019-08-07
• ·       https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/meeting-the-challenge-of-drug-terrorism-in-jammu-and-kashmir-115112600416_1.html
• ·       Ahmad, Bilal & Bhat, & Rahi, Shayesta & Mir, Mudasir & Sidiq, Tahira. (2015). AWARENESS OF DRUG ADDICTION AMONG COLLEGE STUDENTS OF KASHMIR VALLEY. International Journal of Medical Sciences & Pharmaceutical Research, Volume1, Issue1, Jul-Dec-2015, pp 01-14, ISSN (Online):2455-NKMN
• ·       https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/JampK-gets-10-of-Central-funds-with-only-1-of-population/article14506264.ece
• ·       http://www.academicjournals.org/app/webroot/article/article1381919251_Naqshbandi.pdf
• ·       https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/JampK-gets-10-of-Central-funds-with-only-1-of-population/article14506264.ece
• ·       http://jkhealth.org/new2017/pdf/GO%2041.pdf

Economic slowdown & departure from the myth of the cave

"In Plato's Republic, there is an allegory of cave. Where prisoners are chained inside with their face towards the wall and are unable to turnaround their heads. There is fire behind their backs and all they can see is the shadows cast by objects passing in front of fire. Slowly they get accustomed to perceive the wall (shadows) as real and are ignorant about the objects which cause these shadows."



As per the latest data on GDP growth, the economy grew by 5% in the 1^st quarter of FY 2019-20. The dip in growth is alarming given the growth trend of last two decades and stands next only to what country witnessed in 2013.

The industry seems to be in doldrums  with “factory output growth, measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), slowed to 2 per cent in June 2019, as compared to 7 per cent in June 2018”. (Slowdown Blues: India's industrial output growth declines to 2% in June, 2019)

The auto sector has been the worst hit with reports on sales plummeting by as much as 70% vis-à-vis last year’s quarterly sales. While there is still a debate going on whether this slowdown is cyclical or structural, many political economists attribute this slowdown to the jobless growth that the country has witnessed especially over the last 5 years..

Deconstructing the slowdown

If we analyze the quarterly GDP growth & inflation rates over the last 2 years, we can see that economy is passing through Low-inflation-Low-growth phase. So current slowdown is basically a demand driven slowdown (Unlike a supply driven slowdown which leads to low growth high inflation situation)[*] (Kishore, 2019)

*To understand this phenomenon in more detail, read this

Low-inflation-low-growth: People don’t have the willingness or capacity to buy goods which leads to a demand depression fueling the vicious cycle of:

low-demand->low investment-> job loss -> low savings ->low demand

One of the reasons for this can be reduced capacity to buy, indicating the impact of jobless growth & low YoY wage growth rate. Second reason for this can be deliberate postponement of demand. In present scenario, both seem to be working in tandem.

While unemployment rate is possibly the highest in decades as indicated by NSSO data [*], YoY wage growth rate has also come down to single digit. 

*A curious mind may want to research on how scientifically unemployment rate is calculated in India

The underlying reasons

The first culprit (Lack of investment)

On the macro level, if we take Gross Fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a proxy for investment; GFCF as a percentage of GDP has declined from 34.3% in 2011 to 28.8% in 2018. Similarly, gross domestic savings (GDS) as a percentage of GDP have declined from 32.7% in 2011 to 29.3% in 2018. But at the same time inflation has been very benign for last many years, it has come down from 10.03% in FY 2013 to 3.41% in FY 2019. (Matthew, 2019)

Takeaway

While the decline in GFCF is noteworthy, it’s not so steep or at such alarming levels to cause a slowdown. Further, the low inflation situation which is benign for consumers, reduces the incentive for producer to invest & produce; which may partly explain low GFCF.

The second culprit (Demonetization)

The bizarre policy of cancelling the tender of high denomination notes (Rs. 500/1000) allegedly in a bid to contain corruption. 

As per estimates, it resulted in invalidating nearly 84% of total currency in circulation (out of total ~15.6 lakh crore) for settling transactions. The process of re-monetizing economy was long and painful.

Many sociologists cum economists give a folklorish reasoning as to how this resulted in behavioral change. The story goes like this, in the absence of cash people managed to survive for 3 months, they realized most of their expenditure was in fact extravagance. This realization resulted in sustained slowdown in expenditure, leading to low demand and current low demand driven slowdown is just one ripple of that Tsunami.

Takeaway

While no one really has data to prove or disprove this, the reasoning seems to be dumbed down to such a level (possibly to gain votes) that it stops making sense. So how much impact demonetization (which at worst was a short-term Pain) has on current situation; Cannot really say.

Third culprit (Goods & Service Tax)

Also termed as “Gabbar Singh Tax”, according to many noted intellectuals GST while good in concept was badly implemented. They blame the multi-tiered, complex, paper-work centric GST as the root-cause of many economic ills of today.

But like all intellectuals with ideological lenses, they fail to mention the complexity of what GST replaced. GST amalgamated nearly 16 indirect taxes which included intra-state taxes as well as inter-state taxes, levied and collected at different-different levels. (Mukhopadhyay, 2019)

The previous tax regime was a supremely complicated structure from the point of view of producers as well as marketeers (the whole supply chain basically).

So even if GST seems less than perfect right now, it’s a huge improvement on what existed before and could not possibly have resulted in choking the economy. So, what needs to be analyzed is comparative complexity of GST vis-à-vis Socialist Indirect Tax regime existing since time immemorial.

Takeaway

The only way GST has negatively impacted the commerce, is by pushing tax-compliance down the throat of celebrated job-creating MSME sector[*]. So, if anyone cries that GST screwed up MSMEs, he is basically asking to restore the PRACTICAL indirect tax-amnesty for MSMEs.

On the other hand, even for the MSME sector, compliance is a short-term pain with huge upside in the form of input tax credit in future. Unless these MSMEs are established Dwarfs (terminology explained in detail in Economic Survey 2018-19 which basically means MSMEs that refuse to grow), they also stand to gain from GST just like the formal sector. 

* Economic Survey 2018-19 contains an in-depth analysis, busting the perception of MSMEs as major job-creators

Fourth culprit (Regulatory changes & uncertainty)

This is true especially for automobile sector which has almost 50% weightage in IIP. In July 2018, the S.C. ordered compulsory third-party insurance cover for three years and five years for new cars and two-wheelers respectively. Along with this imposition of safety regulations, rising fuel prices and increased vehicle registration costs have resulted in increased total ownership costs (TCO) for the automobiles.

Further, from the consumers end there is also a deliberate postponement of demand due to BS-VI implementation, diesel vehicle uncertainty, EV push and expectations of GST policy rate cut for the sector.

 Takeaway

Transition to BS-VI implementation was a long-established policy of the government. However, there is a newfound vigour for environment and safety regulations among both government & judiciary. While all these regulatory moves are praiseworthy, these could & should have come at a more opportune time.

The culprit (IL&FS & NPAs)

When IL&FS defaulted on its interest payments on September 2018, it had an outstanding debt to the tune of ~1 lakh crore. It sent the whole NBFC sector in a tailspin (see their stock prices). These NBFCs had huge exposure to infrastructure & housing sector and due to its contagion effects, IL&FS seemed like the Lehman moment for Indian economy.

IL&FS crisis which then triggered the NBFC crisis, has caused an acute liquidity crunch in the economy.  

For our present analysis we will use “No Liquidity = Economic Slowdown” as a maxim* (Explained: What does liquidity crisis mean?, 2019)

*To understand how lack of liquidity results in economic slowdown, read this

How it affected the MSMEs

For small scale firms and MSMEs, credit from NBFCs forms an integral part of working capital financing. As per Finance Industry Development Council (FIDC) NBFC lending to MSMEs has reduced substantially in 1^st quarter of FY 2019. 

Coupled with NPA issue, credit offtake becomes the most relevant issue haunting the current economy. As per NITI Aayog VC, Rajiv Kumar “There is no trust in the market among private players.”

How it affected Automobile sector

As per SIAM (Society of Indian Automobile manufacturers), 70% of two-wheeler sales, 30-35% of personal vehicle/cars sales and 60% of commercial vehicle sales used to be financed by NBFCs. So, when major NBFCs are looking down the barrel of NPAs and practicing extreme prudence in sanctioning credit, demand slowdown seems like a definite outcome.

Takeaway

The least discussed IL&FS crisis is actually the main reason for current economic slowdown. Now who is to blame for IL&FS and NPA crisis of the country, is the discussion which we will leave for another day (Further reading: here)

Conclusion

Even ordinary Americans cannot grasp what went wrong leading up to Global Financial Crisis (GFC) so it is a pipe-dream to hope that our Indian brethren will take the time and pain to read & understand how IL&FS caused economic slowdown. 

When Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her press conference yesterday (06-09-2019) pointed out that liquidity crunch due to slashed NBFC lending, is the single largest reason for current slowdown, it all seemed like a technical jargon.

So, if I were a political/ideological opponent; I would blame Modi, demonetization, GST, jobless growth, fascism & what not for current slowdown even when deep down I know, it was mostly IL&FS. Which brings us to the final question, are we content with watching the shadows or do we want to actually see the objects which cast those shadows?

Written By:

Shekhar Agarwal

(b18108@astra.xlri.ac.in)

CPPR, XLRI

References

(2019). Economic Survey of India. Ministry of Finance.

Explained: What does liquidity crisis mean? (2019, August 23). Retrieved from Indiatoday: https://www.indiatoday.in/business/story/india-liquidity-crisis-nbfc-ilfs-sectoral-slowdown-economic-growth-1590770-2019-08-23

Kishore, R. (2019, September 04). Why the 2019 economic slowdown is different from 2012-13 | Analysis. Retrieved from Hindustan Times: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/why-the-2019-slowdown-is-different-from-2012-13/story-XuRgL94L1g82EaLGqasmAJ.html

Matthew, D. (2019, August 24). View: Is the current slowdown cyclical or structural? . Retrieved from Economictimes: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/view-is-the-current-slowdown-cyclical-or-structural/articleshow/70814310.cms?from=mdr

Mukhopadhyay, S. (2019, March 26). Distorted criticisms on GST. Retrieved from Business Standard: https://www.business-standard.com/article/beyond-business/distorted-criticisms-on-gst-119032601448_1.html

Slowdown Blues: India's industrial output growth declines to 2% in June. (2019, August 9). Retrieved from Businesstoday: https://www.businesstoday.in/current/slowdown-blues/slowdown-blues-india-index-industrial-production-declines-to-2-percent-in-june/story/371537.html